PERRY ROMPS IN PRE-DEBATE POLL – AT 7:51 P.M. ET:   In a few minutes we'll start live-blogging the GOP debate from Tampa.  A pre-debate poll shows Perry with a decisive lead, which means he'll be the main target of opportunity tonight.  From the New York Post:

ATLANTA -- Texas Gov. Rick Perry has emerged as the firm frontrunner in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, according to a poll released Monday, outpacing former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney among declared candidates by 32 percent to 21 percent.

Registered Republicans over 50 favor Perry over Romney by 41 percent to 22 percent, according to the latest CNN poll. Among those over 65, Perry leads Romney by a whopping three-to-one margin, showing seniors have not been scared by Perry's provocative language about Social Security being a failure and a Ponzi scheme.

The former Massachusetts governor hopes to scare voters away from Perry by arguing that the Texan would be a weaker foe against President Barack Obama in the general election.

But voters see things differently. In the CNN poll, 42 percent thought Perry had the best chance of beating Obama, compared to 26 percent for Romney.

The numbers are not much better when it comes to another core plank of the Romney campaign: that as a former businessman, Romney is the best equipped to turn the economy around.

Asked who in the GOP field would be most likely to "get the economy moving," 35 percent favored Perry, while 26 percent favored Romney.

The poll also underscored the plunge in support for Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann. Among a field that also included the name of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Bachmann won the support of just four percent of registered Republicans, down from 10 percent last month and 12 percent in July.

COMMENT:  Perry has taken Bachmann's supporters.  If she can't turn it around quickly, I'm afraid she's out of it. 

But I don't think Perry has this won.  Romney has substantial resources and an appeal to the center.  This two-man battle will develop over the next few months.

Question:  If Sarah Palin gets in, will she take votes from Perry?  Possibly.  That will be intriguing.

Romney won the endorsement of former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota.  Pawlenty is a good man, but his endorsement means little.

Perry is expected to be endorsed by Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, a favorite among Republicans.  That means something.  It also places Jindal on the v.p. list.

Stand by.

September 12, 2011